The old forum by Craig was shutdown, but I for one would like to see it continue. If Tesla buyers care to self report their VINs going forward feel free to do it in this forum. Happy to take the reins where Craig left off. Thank you
last one reported was 28680 assigned on 12/2, to give you a head start.
So, where's your graph based on one VIN? >;)
appreciate it! any links to other extant forums also appreciated so i cant hunt these down myself
Updated graph as of 12/10/2013 thanks to 2 new data pts. My curiosity in continuing this scheme stems from the fact that current VIN assignments at a rate of ~450/wk are trending so far below wall street estimates for 2014 of ~700/wk. It seems that many of you have dismissed that reliability of this information following recent quarterly results, but I believe its too early to tell. Its true that many issues (Timing of deliveries, the number of loaner vehicles, batching of VINs) obfuscate the usefulness of this data in pegging an exact number for deliveries, but i believe the data could still serve as a measure for the upper bound of what deliveries might be. Or at least am willing to find out. Questions/comments welcome
julius went to the old thread,
email@example.com | December 11, 2013
26999 delivered 12/7/2013. MS 85+
Elon announced today they are building 600/week which is the max battery supply from Panasonic.
what is the highest VIN assigned?
Highest vin: 29298, assigned dec 10
26188 assigned in late Oct; car delivery on 12/3. Super car, great appreciation for the help of Tesla and these forums.Thanks.
took Delivery today 15DEC2013 on VIN26327
picking up tomorrow in Rockville VIN17540 (P85 with all options checked) White with Beige leather interior.
Any vin assignments?
Got my MS vin number assigned today Dec 17: 29459
graph as of 12/18/2013. working with what we have. please submit if you've recently received a VIN. The decline in VIN assignment rate continues. 364 vins/wk using last 2wks data.
I don't see how you are getting those numbers and you have very little data. I looked at your chart and it was jumbled up at flicker.
With over 1000 vin assignments between 12/2 and 12/17 just on this thread and the odds of the VINS being listed here being the very last ones issued on that day are slim. Your number definitely represents an incorrect level of confidence, at a minimum.
Future numbers will not be representative for some time too. VIN numbers do not represent sales trends. It represents a car getting built on the production line. The factory shuts down for a week each quarter and that week is quickly approaching so that can impact VIN assignment greatly. The cars are built in batches based on configurations and destinations. That impacts VIN assignment rates.
aesilberman is apparently interested in VIN data to support his bear case for Tesla's stock price. He's demonstrated that he will take a handful of VIN data points and find 3 significant figures of gloom and doom for Tesla in the results. This is nonsense.
Thank you for your opinions Captain_Zap and CalDreamin
Captain_Zap: I agree there is very little new data. Ill check flicker, and thank you for the heads up. This graph is a scatter plot of rolling weekly rate of VIN assigments using data from previous 2wks. I'm familiar with the drawbacks of this method and I agree with some of your points. Accuracy depends on the number of VINs reported et al, and as such I hope ppl are encouraged to report. You can simply choose not to waste your time if you think this is an exercise in futility. I do not think that looking at VIN assignments will let you forecast to the 100th car, but it certainly helps in ballparking over a quarter and year.
CalDreamin: I'm actually just looking for the truth. If a layperson were to look at the data qtd, it would appear that estimates are way off. Would like more data to prove or disprove that.
What are your qualifications when it comes to data qualifying and data analysis?
Given the sparseness of data, it probably makes more sense to look at the data over a longer period of time. Maybe 2 months rather than 2 weeks. If I take all of the VIN's reported in the last 2 months, plot them, and have Excel draw a straight line through them, the slope is 410 per week. I believe this is an accurate representation of the VIN assignment rate.
Combined with the thousands of EU VIN's that were preassigned, this would be consistent with a build rate of 600/week.
Feel free to post your work. Encourage everyone to draw their own conclusions and add to discussion. I dont know the right answer, I just hope ppl keep posting to add to robustness of dataset. I use a relatively short 2 wks bc the company is supposed to be ramping their production over time and I want to see that when it happens. Its not the only method I use.
Thank you for the follow up. Economics and Stat major from Duke and post graduate work at Columbia. Feel free to email me directly with further follow up.
Does one need more than 10th grade algebra to compile a plotted line of rolling averages?
SMinnihan, I'm not sure what your point is, but yes you can calculate averages with 10th grade algebra. But I would argue that a 10th grader will not know if this is the most appropriate way to analyze sporadic data of this type. Craig was good enough to elaborate on some of the challenges in his earlier postings.
What we see for sure is that VIN assignment dropped dramatically from 700/wk to 400/wk around October 10. In my opinion, this has zero correlation with factory build rates. It merely reflects a change in methodology about how they assign (pre-assign) VIN numbers.
Per Out4aDuck's point, the numbers won't line up to production numbers due to the European build out and batch VIN assignments. I think investing based on this type of unreliable data is emblematic of the problem with today's impatient investors...both institutional and individual. If you believe in the long term viability of the at, the business, and the business model, then buy and hold or buy and sell when a logical peak is reached, or hedge...but don't just short because you think you can detect a barely perceptible drop in the build pace based on a handful of data points.
I used to compile and analyze scientific data. I would then present and defend the data and conclusions in court. Misinterpretation of data is a pet peeve. I wouldn't take this data to court or to the bank for a multitude of reasons.
The conclusion that was drawn is even more questionable that the data. No margin of error is mentioned and the significant figures implied certainly disqualifies the conclusion.
Tesla should just release monthly deliveries like every other car company