1. The size of the battery? 2. Options 3. under promise over deliver quote 4. 5000 cars made in 2012
Larger battery will likely get you the car sooner, but you should probably expect to get it by the end of March 2013.
5,000 cars in 2012, but that includes over 1,000 Signatures.
I think if you have a low number, then the larger battery will likely get you the car sooner, but by the time they start producing for the larger numbers, you'll be mixed in with production for all the batteries. When production starts, it will be focused on making 100% models 85kWh batteries. After a few months, the throughput will need to be shared with the 60kWh model rampup, ultimately saturating at 50% for 85kWh models and 50% for 60kWh models (possibly). A few months after that, the 40kWh models get thrown into the mix, possible saturating at 33% of the throughput dedicated to each?
My number is P#4932. At the time I got that number, the international order profile (according to michiganmodels) looked like this:
S 448 (August 31, 2011)
R 270 (June 1, 2011)
P 4,932 (September 5, 2011)
S 86 (August 19, 2011)
P 183 (August 15, 2011)
S 72 (August 17, 2011)
P 439 (August 22, 2011)
S13 (May 21, 2011)
S 2 (April 27, 2011)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 1 (March 23, 2011)
S 9 (April 10, 2011)
P 10 (June 5, 2011)
Total: 6,467 - September 5, 2011
S = Signature Series (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)
I'm hoping with the order dropout rate, my order number will fall under within the first 5000 cars produced; however, even though I'm ordering an 85kWh model, I don't expect to get it until sometime in December since my number is relatively high (P#4932).
WITH YOUR NUMBER P#6997( MY #) WHEN DO WE THINK WE WILL GET OUR CAR? I am going with the 85kwh
skystream3.7@gm... | FEBRUARY 14, 2012
1. The size of the battery?
3. under promise over deliver quote
4. 5000 cars made in 2012
@skystream: I've taken a crack at a shipment model, based on snippets and guesses. With your number, I don't believe the battery size will make a difference; by the time your number comes up, Tesla should have been able to clear the backlog of low-number reservation holders who wanted the 40kWh or 60kWh battery.
Assuming Tesla delivers 5,000 in 2012, and that it will have ramped up the factory to the 20,000/year pace by the start of 2013 (=1,650/day), then your number should come up in early- to mid-April.
Why? (all numbers approximate)
This math doesn't account for drop rates, which could slide you in earlier, but I'd be thinking April and be pleasantly surprised.
Sig 592, so I hope before mid August... coincidentally before my birthday =)
European #P3 (shifted from #P1 originally). I hope for a delivery just still in 2012, but more realistically in Q1 2013.
FYI, this topic has had a lot of discussion including a "delivery date poll" at:
and follow-up at:
Robert.Boston...It is 200 Canadian signatures model S cars.
My reservation number, #5747, is the reason why I want to upgrade to signature if I can get off the wait list and into the sig list. I really want to own this car this year.
"20,000/year pace by the start of 2013 (=1,650/day)"
20,000/365 = 55 cars per day, not 1,650
Conversely 1,650 X 365 = 602.250 cars a year, That would make Tesla one of the best selling brands in the world. We can dream !
Somewhere I'd heard a suggestion that 2012 could see as many as 7,000 cars produced in total. I assume it will depend on how the late-year ramping up goes.
How does Tesla know what battery size you want? Have they started requesting that information? Or will they ask all reservation holders to submit their specs when final details come out (presumably this month)?
20,000/365 = 55 cars per day, not 1,650
My words were wrong, my numbers are right -- it's 1,650 cars/month, which is what's shown in my calculations above. Yes, I rounded down.
@bfadewole -- I've read that a few months before the car is scheduled to be finished the reservation holder will be contacted for final options. Likely this will revolve around sharing a configuration through the design studio then confirmation emails and contracts for payment.
Once all that is done, they make the car.
Based on 55 cars a day and my P#1,837 then I think I can expect it maybe in October?
the biggest unaswered question is how many 300 mile cars Telsa will make before moving to 230 and then to 160. In theory, someone ordering a car today that wants the 300 miles pack could get their car before someone that ordered one 2 years ago in they are getting the 160. Alot depends on drops out. It would be nice if Tesla gave better direction - but for now we wait....
FWIW, I was consistently told my expectation that my car would arrive in August (Sig 703) was reasonable at the X event.
@BYT: My customer rep thought Oct/Nov for me (P1635).
Should we be basing calculations off of 365 days in the year? Do they really run the plant 24/7?
The numbers we're given are based on yearly amounts, so however you divide it (7d a week or 4d a week) it comes out the same average over the year.
@Robert, I am REALLY hoping for sooner... :)
Model S Signature #13
So being in the UK, I can 'expect' it in Q1 next year?
The 20,000 number is a single shift full time. So the daily average over a year is 55 cars/day. The average daily production/work day should be around 80 cars. 5 days/week, 50 weeks. 2 weeks scheduled downtime.
Elon has been touting the fact that they will be able to double production relatively cheaply by adding an additional shift on the same line.
If they can get their line to run smoothly, with high quality, then yes, they might step it up to 24/7/365 and pay the small penalty of overtime and a larger labor workforce. That's a hard place to get to however, but TM is hiring!
My understanding is that for this first year, out of all current reservation holders at the time they begin taking actual orders, they will first deliver all Sigs, then deliver all non-Sig Perfs, then all 85kwh, then 60kwh, and then 40kwh. Basically they are going to delvier them in price order (which is probably margin order as well).
I wonder if within a battery class, they give precedence to higher margin cars (more options ordered).
My point is, if what I am saying is true, then it will be difficult to predict when specific people will get their cars without knowing the the amount of each battery class that people intend to buy.
"My understanding is that for this first year, out of all current reservation holders at the time they begin taking actual orders, they will first deliver all Sigs, then deliver all non-Sig Perfs, then all 85kwh, then 60kwh, and then 40kwh." @olanmills
I don't think that's right; it's certainly not been stated that absolutely by Tesla. Founders, then all Sigs first, check. Then they'll start with the 85kWh packs, add in 60kWh packs to the mix a few months later, and then add in the 40kWh packs by the end of the year. My understanding is that this sequence has more to do with ramping up battery production sequentially, and not a grab for quick margin.
To the best of my knowledge, Tesla has never said anything about the Performance option changing a reservation's priority.
I suspect that the effect of the Peformance option on reservation order will depend largely on the state of the powertrain manufacturing lines (since the Performance will require a variant powertrain), and perhaps also on the availability of the carbon fiber pieces. They may be produced earlier, they may be produced later, depending on relative readiness of different parts.
I have been told the same
@Brant, I sure hope that's true, but it sounds too good to be true. That would give my relatively high production number a huge boost in priority.