In 10 to 20 years when battery costs come down significantly, will EV cars be cheaper to make than ICE cars?
given the ev's simpler engine and no need for an exhaust system, shouldn't construction costs be cheaper?
Rule of thumb - 40% of retail price is for the propulsion system...
- if a 300 miles battery+engine retails today for $40k then the car has to retail for $100k
- if you want to retail a car for $30k then the battery+engine retail is $12k = 90 miles ( = Leaf )
In the future if you can make a battery+engine good for 300 miles for $12k then you can have a car for $30k that goes about 300 miles. But it will be a lesser car, because you only have $18k ( instead of $60k ) to make the body etc...
So how much cost can be reduced in the battery and engine of an EV in 10 to 20 years?
best guess would be 50% every 10 years in todays money
However inflation will make the price of a Leaf in 20 years somewhere between $60k to $120k.