I am most likely going to get a MS in 2015. Any qualified idea on what the max size battery will be by then?
It is between this and getting a BMW 525d touring now and keeping it for 5-7 years. Same price in Denmark.
Get the Tesla. My daily driver used to be an e39 BMW 540 Touring. After driving the Tesla for a few month I have no desire to take the bimmer out anymore.
My guess is that the battery sizes will be the same sizes as now. I'm sure the 2015 S will have additional features but I don't see a battery upgrade that soon. Perhaps we'll eventually have a 100 kWh or 125 kWh battery but I'm guessing those are at least 5 years away.
That being said, my battery pack is a 60 and I love the car. Simply put, it's the best car I've ever driven or that I've bene in.
As a 5-series BMW owner, I say unequivocally get the Model S. You have a 1 in 4 chance of a bigger battery being available some time in 2015 (WAG). I lived in Denmark for a year, it's not huge. 85 KWh is awesome for Denmark. Vi ses!
There's barely room to accelerate properly in Denmark.
I am a certified lithium ion expert and and MS owner. I tend to agree with the conservative comments that you won't see a a big improvement by 2015. The next major logical improvemnt involves use of the lithium silicon alloy, on which I happen to be the inventor of the first successful implementation. I guess this will come to pass, but if I worked at Tesla I would want four years of develop. Successful start ups rightly become more conservative as they age and Tesla must have had 4 to 6 years on the basic Panasonic cell before deployment of the Model S.
Get the Tesla as soon as you can. I rode about two hours today in a client's brand new Bentley. The Tesla is a far superior car and is a lot of fun.
Get the Model S and start saving money. The cost per kilometer will be half of the 525d and the fun double as much.
I currently have a MB350 and can't wait till I get my Model S. There is no doubt in my mind that the Model S will be the winner compared to the 525d
I am little surprised that most of you do not see a larger battery until after 2015.
According to posts on this board there are already Panasonic cells available in the Tesla format with larger capacity than the cells in the 85 KWh.
Further I believe Panasonic increase the capacity a little (5-7%) on an annual basis???
Since range is still an issue for plenty of people it seems like a good area for Tesla to improve ASAP if it is possible.
In any case the MS is a very nice car with lots of trunk capacity which I need.
Thank You for your feedback.
Tesla will want to do significant testing on cells before putting them in a production car, and the time from "locking down" a car design to putting it into production is also quite lengthy. I've no doubt they are working with newer cells, and I would expect them to debut in the Model X. After the Model X is live they can work on getting the new cells into the S. They will then be working on the new-new cells for the 3rd gen.
While those who think Model S 2.0 is several years out may be right, here is my speculation.
Tesla and Panasonic are working very closely for obvious reasons. I'd be amazed if Tesla hasn't been life cycle testing the latest higher energy density cells for over a year now. Contrary to what Tesla may be saying officially at the moment, I expect Model X to debut with these newer cells and modestly higher range than current 60 and 85 kwh packs give S. If this comes to pass, then I predict MS 2.0 will debut at same time or very soon after with same upgraded pack. No mechanical or significant manufacturing changes are necessary to switch to newer cells. Form factor has not changed. Plenty of software/firmware 'tuning' to account for changes to the electrical characteristics of new cell. That has already been done so they can life cycle test the new cell for 2 - 3 years before using in X.
While Tesla might upgrade performance a bit for MS 2.0, keeping it same would be fine and minimize further hardware changes needed to debut 2.0 at same time X goes live. Would not make alot of sense for Tesla to run separate build production lines for current and new cell packs. Naturally Tesla will saying nothing about when 2.0 may arrive, to avoid any potential buyers from waiting to buy until the 2.0 comes out.
I have a slight hope they have a Model S 2.0 with AWD and new batteries ready along the times when Model X is released.;-)
"I am little surprised that most of you do not see a larger battery until after 2015."
You are hoping that in 3 years from initial model the car will have larger battery pack. We have the Roadster out for 5 years and there is no option for better battery pack. Things are much more complicated than the availability of the (non-customized) cells in (limited) production. As others have said, first there is testing, testing and there a bit more testing. Then there are economic, marketing and logistic problems.
The best way to do it is to put new tech in new models, and improve existing models only marginally (sensors, software, performance+, adaptive cruise control etc.). There is a chance Model S will get AWD, as a major hardware upgrade, but this may have been in the books for a long time.
Tesla & Panasonic are developing another battery. The new battery is lighter and has greater discharge. I am not sure when the new pack will be released.
Tesla has a suspension issue that may be addressed. The issue particularly relates to tire wear on 21 inch summer tires.
The navigation system may be altered. The changes are software based and may include automatic updates.
I hope this is helpful.
I can understand an MS2.0 would be some time off, but the battery pack should be a like-for-like 90 second swap + firmware upgrade, no?
Or am I over-simplifying this?
Keep in mind everyone, the pack is not likely to get a longer range for a VERY long time. Sure, new technologies are making the cells more efficient, safer, and output more and more power... but the car, currently is VERY heavy by any comparison of a similar ICE vehicle. Any developments in cell technology that allow them to fit more power in a smaller space will not mean they will increase the range of the pack... it will mean they will decrease the weight of the pack, and keep the current power output values.
Once the Model S is down to 4000lbs or less, THEN you might start to see higher kWh battery packs.
Lighter car => more range...
Model E in 2016 will drive the transition to updated cells.
It is rational for TM to use those same new cells in all their Models once they've been validated for the Model E.
Ulrik - my wife is Danish, and she drives a Model S. If I offered her two BMW 750iL's in exchange for her Tesla, she would refuse.
The car is better in ways you don't appreciate until you start using it.
@Tiebreaker weight has a lot less effect than you think, unless in stop and go traffic. Wind resistance is the major cause of lower range at speed.
I don't doubt range will go up when the packs get lighter, but it will not suddenly make an 85kWh car go 400miles on a charge.
@Haeze: True, but still does. No way 400 miles with same 85kWh and same aerodynamics, but 300 on the 5-cycle EPA test could be possible.
@Haeze - "is VERY heavy by any comparison of a similar ICE vehicle"
MB S class - 4729 lbs
Porsche Panamera - 4619 lbs
BMW 740 - 4310 lbs
Model S - 4647 lbs
Do I miss something? I would say they are in the same weight class.
I got my Model S a month ago. Not coincidentally, I haven't driven my Aston DB9 in a month. Phenomenal car. Get the Model S.
What about battery upgrade? Do you think Tesla will allow 60KW or 85KW upgrade to 110KW or higher battery pack in 3-4 years? Love to have more range for long distance driving.
@jandkw - my guess is that Tesla will be cell supply limited for many years to come... new cars are more profitable then upgrading the battery and I assume upgrade will not be an option offered soon - I plan on buying a new car when a 120kWh battery is available.