I have a theory that goes something like this:
Tesla announces about the Superchargers. Lots of new stations announced.
1. Tesla announces battery swap for 60's for 85kWh batteries at Service Center before/during big road trips. This is a service that will hardly get used since most people will be able to use a Supercharger, but will offer 1 minute swap with appointment. Each Service Center will only need to maintain a few large packs since the demand will be mild.
2. They couple this "faster than a fill-up" recharge with 120kWh charging so that Supercharge fill times drop significantly.
3. The cost of swap service will be complimentary for anyone with a service plan and some nominal amount if you choose to pay on a per use basis.
A. Tesla said in SEC-filing for Q2 "our capability to rapidly swap out the Model S battery pack and the development of specialized public facilities to perform such swapping, which do not currently exist but which we plan to introduce in the NEAR future." [Emphasis added]
B. 120 kwh charging has already been baked in.
C. It gives Tesla access to 7 ZEV credits instead of 4 credits per car as battery swap satisfies the fast refueling requirements.
D. Adding battery swaps at Tesla Service centers effectively triples Tesla's fast charging network. (Add all Superchargers (9) to all Service Centers (25?)
This scenario is extremely cost effective since it only requires:
1. Upgrade to vehicle software.
2. 10 battery packs per service center x 25? Service Centers x $20,000/pack = $5 Million
3. Battery swapping machine
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