What is the estimated delivery timeline looking like if a reservation is placed now?
If TM goes into 2013 at full production rate (20,000 per year), and if you are in the US my guess would be around June/July. There are over 13,000 on order right now, with c.2000 to be produced before year end in addition to the 1000 bodies already produced. So if you place your order tomorrow you'll get US Production reservation # 13,200 (give or take).
To a certain extent it depends on how TM starts sequencing Canadian and European orders vs US.
Check out the most recent posts in this thread: http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-s-reservation-tally
So, I'm theorizing a little differently ...
Optimistic case scenario: they get closer to 5,000 delivered by end of year, 14,500 net reservations currently, of which you'll lose 25% to cancellations. This puts you just shy of 6,000 cars to manufacture in 2013 before taking delivery of Res 13,200, or a delivery in Early April (assuming that international orders get prioritized equally with domestic)
I realize that there are lots of other variables in play, but in my mind I want to convince myself that this is possible (I'm am 12,970) :-)
No chance whatsoever they'll produce 5,000 by year end, TSLA already revised 5,000 downward more than a month ago in company statement saying they'll produce around 3,000 by year end.
We'll have more accurate estimate next week:
Question was estimated delivery. I doubt Tesla will deliver more than 2,500 cars this year. Maybe 300 will be enroute at year end. I'd say if you order now, you might get your car in September 2013. I don't see Tesla exceeding 1,600 per month in the first half of 2013.
@h8tow8 *sigh* ... I know, but if I wish it, it will come through no? isn't it that time of the year?
That said though, I would expect them to exceed whatever the latest public statement forecasts. Reducing estimates is a rather painful experience for a public company (although rather expected for a "start-up" like Tesla), so I would expect them to over deliver on their latest public forecast. I guess we'll know more on Monday about their latest forecast.
I was told the sequence number is not the same as the reservation number. I have sequence #12704 and my reservation # is 314759. The showroom folks were telling me to expect it to take 10 months. I am hoping they are being VERY conservative and that it will come in sooner!
If they meet the target and are able to manufacture 20k cars at next year starting from beginning at the rate which gives that number you should get your car somewhere in midsummer. 10 months sounds slightly pessimistic to me, but only slightly.
When I test drove yesterday, I was told 9 to 11 months lead time.
nickjhowe. I think you are being very optimistic - but I hope you are right. I have a reservation just under P4000, for a 60 kwh loaded 'S.' Judging from what I am seeing on the forums I anticipate receiving mine in February 2013. My guess is closer to October
I'm confused by your post...
He's answering the original question: order now, receive when?
Ok, I think I get it.