First, Congrats on an Amazing Q4. As a Tesla stock holder, and future Tesla owner as soon as the X and/or super car comes out, I would like to see a large capital raise. The stock volatility is very distracting. At a $10 bil valuation, I would like to see you raise $2 bil. As opposed to the traditional methods that are often dilutive and brings down the stock price so the Investment banks customers can profit and get an easy free lunch, I suggest raising the money through a strategic partner. AAPl comes to mind as they won't get any better return on their cash and perhaps both companies can benefit on working together on UI technologies for the car. AAPl also has much of their cash outside of the US which is worth less to them due to taxes and repatriotixation. At some point TSLA will need additional factories outside the US so this could be a good fit. The best part, although dilutive by 20% or so, TSLA stock probably would not go down on the news because:
1) The stability of $ 2 bil on balance sheet. Short thesis goes away and volatility in stock will reduce substantially.
2) The seal of approval from a stable company like apple. TSLA would probably go up on the news despite the dilution on the thoughts "If Apple thinks it is a good investment, it probably is.
3) More folks will be willing to invest with a rock solid balance sheet
4) This would allow TSLA to move up the delivery date of the X. Capital resources would be less of an issue. I think this is critical because I think time will show a high priced SUV will be a better seller than a high priced Sedan. SUV's are the top selling vehicle for Porsche and Lexus. They will be for Tesla as well. I feel the best shot for TSLA to ship 40,000 units in 2014, is by having both the X and the S for most of the fiscal year. It would not surprise me if the X out sells the S in its very first year. Most importantly, this reduces the risk of any slowdown in S sales as you get past the early adopters. Porsche only sells about 28,000 Panamera's and has only sold 100,000 since 2009. Launching the X sooner reduces sales risk on having only one product for 7 more quarters. Although costs will be higher, the successful launch of a second high volume model will more than compensate for the hit to profits and margins in the short term.
5) The additional stock wil be in strong hands that are not selling as opposed to hedge fund customers of the large brokers. Again, this will result in the stock not going down on the dilutive news.
6) The raise takes away a big piece of uncertainty that the shorts keep pointing to that a capital raise is coming. Again, volatility will be reduced so the stock is more investable.
Other strategic partners that would have similar effect of completing a capital raise without a big hit to the stock include in rough order of market impact BRK/a, GOOG, GE, and then the various car companies... A new car partner may have more impact than the existing ones.
I am looking forward to the completion of a capital raise quickly so I can substantially increase my investment position.
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